CIA's Assessment of Eritrea and the ELF 1967
Summary
The
insurgency in Eritrea with its separatist
design is becoming an ever more pressing
problem for the Ethiopian Government. The Eritrean Liberation
Front (ELF) has its origin in the areas of and
Empire's heterogeneity and colonial past. It is gathering strength, resources, determination, and sophistication. It is assisted.
by military, financial, and political
aid 
from Moslem
and, likely, Communist states, and is bolstered by the passivity if not defections among
Christian Eritreans ever more disenchanted with an uncertain and ineffectual regime.
The Imperial Ethiopian
Government (IEG) early fumbled its opportunity to create a basis of true integration in a community of economic and political interest. Instead, the IEGs technique has unvaryingly been one of bribery, intrigue, and, when in doubt, coercion. Thus; Ethiopian ineptness and insensitivity, growing accord among
Moslems involved in forging
an Eritrean future,
Christian disillusion, and foreign meddling, all compound to threaten the IEG's capacity
to maintain its hold.
Unless major changes occur in the Eritrean equation in the relatively near future, there is a distinct possibility of a loss of Eritrea to Ethiopia and of Kagnew Station to the United States, of acceleration beyond the limits of IBG control of the centrifugal forces elsewhere in Ethiopia, and of a major and adverse shift in the balance of power and influence in the Red Sea Basin.
United States policy must take these ineluctable elements into full consideration, including the relatively little room for maneuvering we have between the IEG and the Eritrean Liberation Front, and the few resources we can effectively bring to bear. Within that frame, there are actions that we can take, first to reduce our immediate vulnerability in Eritrea and, second, to move the IEG away from an overly centralized approach to a more enlightened and effective one which will help close the now-growing breach.
The full report can be downloaded from the link below:
https://www.mediafire.com/file/vedkfb5g295xcxv/CIA+Assessment+of+Eritrea+and+ELF_1967.pdf/file
