PROSPECTS FOR ETHIOPIA IN THE NEXT YEAR1
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve06/d153
Excerpts:
14. The most serious provincial dissidence is the Eritrean insurgency, which over the past year has burgeoned into a war between more than 20,000 Ethiopian troops and approximately 10,000 insurgents, not all of whom are armed. The rebels are backed by most of the province’s civilian population. The administration of martial law continues to be carried out in ruthless, repressive fashion. Frequent sweep operations, food rationing, and strict control of transportation have been successful in keeping the insurgents off balance. Still, heavy engagements occur sporadically, and both sides have incurred fairly heavy casualties. The insurgents’ major military objective seems to be an attempt to cut the Ethiopians’ long and exposed supply lines.
15. The two insurgent factions—the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) and the Popular Liberation Forces (PLF)—have stopped fighting each other and have engaged in limited military cooperation against the Ethiopians. Their political leaders abroad have agreed to form joint committees to coordinate the two groups’ activities, and they are making plans to hold a general conference to discuss complete unification. Real political union, however, does not appear to be imminent. The unification effort is supported by the ELF military command, but opposed by the PLF military command led by Isaias Afework.
16. Isaias’ opposition probably stems partly from his concern that unification will upset the delicate religious balance in the PLF. Both rebel factions are predominantly Moslem, but the PLF has more Christians, especially among its leadership. Isaias, a Christian, probably fears unification will dilute Christian influence—and weaken his own position.
17. Other issues have contributed to the widening split between the PLF military command and the Foreign Mission, led by Osman Saleh Sabbe and Woldeab Woldemariam. The long-standing personal enmity and rivalry for power between Osman and Isaias has intensified. Ideology plays a part: Osman—although a leftist—is more pragmatic than Isaias.
18. The PLF guerrillas, now that they are carrying the burden of fighting a full-scale insurgency, are even less inclined to accept the direction of their political representatives abroad. The fighters also resent the comfortable living conditions enjoyed by members of the Foreign Mission, and they are probably suspicious that Mission members have diverted Front funds to their personal use.
